Economist · Banco Central de Chile

Carla
Varona
Cervantes

Senior Economist at the Banco Central de Chile.
Ph.D. in Economics, European University Institute.
Quantitative macroeconomics, labor markets, and human capital — with a focus on gender gaps and educational inequality across countries.

Fields of Interest
Macroeconomics Labor Economics International Economics Human Capital Gender Economics

I am a Senior Economist in the Economic Analysis Department at the Banco Central de Chile, where I work on labor market dynamics, gender gaps, and human capital policy.

My research combines quantitative macroeconomic modeling with labor and international economics. One strand uses dynamic models of educational choice with labor market information frictions to study gender gaps in wages and college attainment across OECD countries. A second strand — joint with Agustín Díaz and Nadim Elayan-Balagué — uses linked administrative microdata and a calibrated dynastic general equilibrium OLG model to study talent misallocation and education policy in Chile.

I hold a Ph.D. in Economics from the European University Institute (Florence, 2023), where I was advised by Russell Cooper and Alexander Monge-Naranjo. I am a native Spanish speaker and fluent in English and Italian.

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Research

■ Published
Labor Market Implications of Education Mismatch
Carla Varona Cervantes & Russell Cooper
European Economic Review, vol. 148, 2022, article 104179.
◆ Conditionally Accepted — The Economic Journal
Determining Gender Differences in Education and Labor Market Outcomes
Carla Varona Cervantes & Russell Cooper
This paper studies gender differences in educational attainment and labor market outcomes. Across 21 OECD countries, though men are paid more than women, the college attainment rates and college premia are (mostly) higher for women. This paper explains these patterns through the quantitative analysis of a dynamic choice model of education and labor market outcomes. Using the estimated model, we decompose the observed gender gaps through a series of counterfactual exercises. One finding is that these gaps are driven mainly by gender differences in the average compensation at non-college jobs. The estimated lower compensation for non-college women generates for them larger college premia and higher incentives to attend college relative to men. A second finding is that observed gender wage gaps for college workers are largely driven by differences in the gender-specific distributions across signals of ability rather than wage differences across genders given a signal.

Work in Progress

○ Work in Progress, 2026
Human Capital Misallocation and General Equilibrium Effects
Carla Varona Cervantes, Agustín Díaz & Nadim Elayan-Balagué
We analyze the general equilibrium effects of human capital misallocation in Chile using linked administrative tax, education, and test-score data. We document substantial educational mismatch, with high-ability students from low-income families under-attending college, and we estimate sizable complementarities between ability, schooling, and labor-market outcomes. We build and calibrate a dynastic overlapping-generations (OLG) model featuring borrowing constraints, parental altruism, and both private and public educational investment — integrating K–12 school quality and college choice in a unified general equilibrium framework. The model is estimated via Simulated Method of Moments using administrative microdata linking tax records, educational outcomes, and standardized test scores for a cohort followed from age 10 through age 28. We use the estimated model to quantify the aggregate output, inequality, and intergenerational mobility effects of policies targeting credit constraints and school quality.
◌ Work in Progress — BCCh Documento de Trabajo, expected December 2026
Labor Market Transitions and Job-to-Job Mobility in Chile
Carla Varona Cervantes & external researcher (Banco Central de Chile)
Descriptive analysis of job-to-job transitions in Chile, with a focus on transitions associated with wage cuts. The project characterizes voluntary vs. involuntary separations, tenure profiles, and wage growth at origin vs. destination firms, using administrative microdata from the Banco Central de Chile.

Policy Work

2024 – 2025
Employment Dynamics in Chile: Administrative Data vs. INE Survey
Comparative analysis of formal private-sector employment trends from AFC administrative records against the National Employment Survey (ENE/INE). Identified and explained systematic divergences by nationality, age group, and sector, with implications for Chile's official employment statistics.
With Matías Tapia & Montserrat Martí
2026
Post-Pandemic Labor Market Dynamics: International Evidence and Chile
Discussion Note reviewing international post-COVID labor market evidence across OECD economies, benchmarked against Chile's anomalous pattern of rising real wages alongside weak employment creation. Addresses automation and AI implications for future labor markets.
With Brian Pustilnik & Nadim Elayan-Balagué
2024
Gender Gaps in Chile — Briefing for the President of the BCCh
Analysis of gender gaps in labor and credit markets using administrative microdata. Regression-adjusted wage gap estimates (19.8%), mobility differentials, and credit market disparities. Presented directly to President Rosanna Costa.
2024
Effects of Working-Hours Reduction: Literature Review for the Board
Synthesized international micro and macro evidence on employment and wage effects of mandatory working-hours reductions across France, Germany, Chile, Canada, and Sweden. Prepared as a policy briefing for the BCCh Board of Directors.
2024
IMF Article IV Comments on Chile and Gender
Technical review and comments on gender-related annexes for Chile's IMF Article IV consultation, assessing coverage and methodology of gender gap indicators.

Experience & Education

2023 – present
Senior Economist
Banco Central de Chile — Monetary Policy Division, Economic Analysis Department
2022 – 2023
Associate Instructor
NYU Abu Dhabi, UAE
2023
Ph.D. in Economics
European University Institute, Florence
Dissertation: "Essays in Economics of Education, Gender and Labor Economics." Advisors: Russell Cooper & Alexander Monge-Naranjo.
2019
MRes. in Economics
European University Institute, Florence
2018
M.A. in Economics
Universidad Carlos III de Madrid
2015
B.A. in Economics
Universidad Carlos III de Madrid

Courses Taught

Numerical Methods (M.A.)NYUAD · Spring 2023
Macroeconomics II (M.A.)NYUAD · 2022–23
Economic Policy (Undergrad)NYUAD · Fall 2023
International Economics (Undergrad)NYU Florence · Spring 2022
Macro & International Econ II (M.A.)EUI · Spring 2022
Macroeconomics III: Incomplete Markets (Ph.D.)EUI · Spring 2021

Grants & Awards

Ph.D. Fellowship — Salvador de Madariaga, Spanish Ministry of Education 2018–2022
Ph.D. Completion Grant — European University Institute 2021–2022
General Scholarship for Post-Compulsory Studies — Spanish Ministry of Education 2012–2015

Presentations

Computing in Economics and Finance (CEF) — Venice 2026
Jornadas de Economía Laboral — Málaga 2026
Midwest Macroeconomics Meetings — Richmond, VA 2024
LACEA Annual Meeting — Montevideo 2024
Gender Gaps Conference — Warsaw 2024
37th Congress of the European Economic Association (EEA-ESEM) 2022
Barcelona School of Economics Summer Forum · XXX Meeting of the Economics of Education Association · ECO-EUI Education Conference · Lisbon Economics and Statistics of Education · Brown Bag Seminar, NYUAD 2021–22

Contact

Email: cvarona@bcentral.cl

Institution: Banco Central de Chile, Agustinas 1180, Santiago, Chile

Languages: English (fluent) · Spanish (native) · Italian (advanced)
Nationality: Cuban, Spanish